This evolving COVID-19 story is something like a combination of two earlier national crises that were incomparably worse — or so we assume and hope.

The public health parallel was the vast influenza pandemic of 1918-19. This scourge infected a third of the world population and killed 50 million people. Some 675,000 of the dead were in the United States, out of a national population of 104.5 million (less than a third of the current number.) As currently, there was no vaccine so the spread could only be fought through social separation, quarantines, and meticulous hygiene. 

Then came the epic economic disaster of the Great Depression, beginning in 1929. In the U.S., by 1933 industrial production had declined by an estimated 47 percent and the gross domestic product by 30 percent while 20 percent of the population was unemployed and a fifth of the nation’s banks had failed. Economic weakness wore on through the decade. 

The news media have a huge responsibility to report right now on both the raging health dangers and the economic damage caused by The Great Lockdown.

However, “social distancing” and “flattening the curve” will — someday — be mere bad memories and America will be able to fully assess the carnage. And, meanwhile, if there’s anything that should send people down on their knees in prayer it’s COVID-19.

But with few exceptions, Americans can only do this as individuals and families because of the massive halt of worship services. Here’s an arresting thought from political scientist Ryan Burge (a contributor to GetReligion): “This coming weekend may represent the fewest people engaging in corporate worship in the last two millennia.” 

David Crary of The Associated Press (a former reporting team colleague of The Guy) has taken an early look at what religion is facing.

The bottom line: America’s churches “are bracing for a painful drop in weekly contributions and possible cutbacks in program and staff.”

It’s not too soon for American religion, and thus religion writers, to carefully consider not only this month’s ministry challenges but whether after this emergency ends online worship may substantially undercut in-person attendance, and whether contributions will be able to rebound.

Regarding attendance, the aforementioned Burge looks at past data to predict that folks who never attend worship now are unlikely to return after this crisis. Nor are faithful attenders going to fade away. He recommends that Virus Era pastors pay special attention to reassuring and helping those in the middle, the occasional attenders who might step up participation.

Religious charities are thinking about all this as well as congregations. Writing for the Wall Street Journal, and thus behind a digital wall, Easterseals President Angela Williams depicted a triple whammy for all nonprofit organizations and their 12 million employees. Donations are expected to decrease, agency shutdowns will cut government payment of fees for services, and earnings from investments and endowments will take a big hit.

One journalistic approach, perhaps when the hourly news cycle calms down a bit, would be to ask the experts how religious bodies fared during and after the influenza panic and the Great Depression, and what they'd expect now. Some seasoned sources: Jon Butler at Yale (jon.butler@yale.edu and 612-331-3236, Grant Wacker at Duke (gwacker@duke.edu), James O’Toole at Boston College (james.otoole@bc.eduand 617-552-8456) and Jack Wertheimer at Jewish Theological Seminary (jawertheimer@jtsa.edu and 212-678-8869). 

Godbeat names:

Crary’s article carried contributor credit for Gary Fields, since September the AP news editor for global religion. Fields was a USA Today and Wall Street Journal reporter, then worked for Lutheran World Relief. AP’s team is led by Global Religion Editor Sally Stapleton, former Pittsburgh Post-Gazette managing editor. She also supervises the wire’s copy-sharing deal with TheConversation.com and Religion News Service.

Speaking of which, the new Religion News Service publisher as of April 6 is Deborah Caldwell, also CEO of the related Religion News Foundation. Caldwell has been an award-winning  religion writer and editor for the Trenton Times and Dallas Morning News, VP for content at Beliefnet.com, marketing strategist at Time Inc., managing editor of Fortune.com, and currently a marketing VP with Bank of America.