This week’s “Crossroads” podcast — click here to tune that in — starts with a rather obvious question linked to the coronavirus crisis.

The question: Would it be a major news story if 20% or more of America’s religious congregations were forced to shut down during the next 12-18 months?

Clearly that would be a huge development in American life — not just on the religion-news beat. On top of that, it would be a story that would almost certainly unfold in every zip code in America. There would be newsworthy hooks at the local, regional and national levels.

What kinds of stories?

Hold that thought.

The hook for this week’s discussion was my latest “On Religion” column for the Universal syndicate, which grew out of recent comments by David Kinnaman, the leader of the Barna Group — which does polling and research with a variety of churches and denominations.

Here is a key passage:

The question religious leaders are asking, of course, is how many people will return to their pews when "normal" life returns. But it may be several years before high-risk older believers decide it's safe to return, even after vaccines become available. Younger members may keep watching their own local services, switch to high-profile digital flocks elsewhere or do both.

In talks with clients, Kinnaman said he is hearing denominational leaders and clergy say they believe that, in the next year or so, some churches will simply close their doors. Early in the pandemic the percentage of insiders telling Barna researchers they were "highly confident" their churches would survive was "in the high 70s," he said. 

"Now it's in the 50s. … Most churches are doing OK, for now. But there's a segment that's really struggling and taking a hit, week after week."

After reviewing several kinds of research -- including patterns in finances and attendance -- Kinnaman sent a shockwave through social-media channels with his recent prediction that one in five churches will close in the next 18 months. In "mainline" churches, he is convinced this number will be one in three, in part because these rapidly aging Protestant denominations have lost millions of members -- some up to 50% -- since the 1960s.

These mainline churches are the “Seven Sisters” of progressive Protestantism. In descending order, by size, that would be the United Methodist Church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), the Episcopal Church, the American Baptist Churches USA, the United Church of Christ and the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ).

These are denominations in which the average age of people in the pews is quite high — high enough to be in many at-risk groups during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, these groups tend to have lower-than-average birth rates, for reasons both sociological and theological (classic quote here from top Episcopal Church leader). Let’s also say that evangelism is not a high priority in these pulpits, for reasons linked to doctrinal stands linked to salvation, heaven and hell (think “universalism”).

Now, where do you tend to find clusters of these historic churches?

In most American cities you will find mainline sanctuaries right in the heart of downtown and in the most expensive older neighborhoods nearby. We are, after all, talking about the old establishment in cities such as New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, etc. Many of these aging urban congregations have been struggling for decades and it doesn’t help that it’s expensive for these shrinking flocks to keep those beautiful buildings in fine working order.

The land underneath those buildings is very valuable, although maybe not as valuable as it was before the coronavirus crisis and other recent events.

What will happen to all of that valuable real estate? That’s a story.

You will also find high numbers of small mainline churches in rural and small-town America, especially United Methodist congregations. Many of these communities are aging and declining, as well. That’s a story.

At the same time, the United Methodists are preparing for historic votes that will almost certainly divide this very American flock into two or three different churches, based on theological approaches to sex and marriage. That will require painful votes in United Methodist pews everywhere — pews that have been empty for months due to COVID-19 lockdowns and the move to online worship. That’s a story.

Get the picture? You need more?

* Thousands of aging pastors will face sudden retirement or difficult moves into online-friendly church life.

* Catholics will need to close more churches and schools, as congregations shrink and the number of new priests keeps declining. Look for rising numbers of permanent, preaching deacons.

* Even if only 10-20% of the faithful exit the pews, or stay at home to binge online services, this could make life tough for leaders of over-extended evangelical megachurches who have to make payments on their massive campuses and buildings.

* If “virtual church” turns into a permanent part of American life, how will that impact beliefs and the practice of the faith? Will seminaries and clergy finally have to face the sobering role that “screen culture” plays in the lives of millions of Americans?

I could go on and on. Once again, these stories will unfold in every zip code in the nation.

In a recent First Things essay (“A Protestant Apocalypse?”), Carl R. Trueman of Grove City College had this to say — it’s long, but essential — about this emerging drama:

On numerous occasions over the last six months I have heard or seen COVID’s effect on churches described as “apocalyptic.” Frequently, the word has been used in its improper but colloquial sense of “catastrophic” or “disastrous,” referring to the chaos it has created for worship services or the damage it has done to budgets. Sometimes, however, it has also been used in its correct sense, to refer to the way COVID has revealed things previously hidden: for example, the fact that some government officials consider casinos and pet grooming more important than worship services, or that the relationship of state power to ecclesiastical authority is highly contested even within many churches. …

In conversation with many ministers, I have noticed one key concern again and again: How many Christians will return to church once COVID has stabilized? It is anecdotal at best at this point, but the figure often cited in my presence is … Three out of every ten pre-COVID worshipers might stay away for good. One friend told me that his denomination’s leadership has informed its ministers that a third of its congregations might close within the next few months.

That figure may prove to be as hyperbolic as many of the other figures that have been bandied about regarding COVID. But it has a chillingly credible feel to it. Many of us have heard people commenting on how watching a church service online at leisure on a Sunday — or whatever other day of the week is most convenient to the consumer—has proved rather attractive. And this raises a number of obvious questions: Why not? Is anything lost thereby? How might those of us who think physical presence at worship is essential respond?

What if faith becomes another form of digitally defined entertainment content, separated from the doctrine, disciplines and activities that require people to be truly present for worship, education and service?

Yes, there will be many news stories to write, for journalists with the eyes to see them.

Enjoy the podcast and, please, pass it on to others.

MAIN IMAGE: From the V is for Vigano website.