Let’s do the math. When discussing the future of the American Catholic Church, Joe Biden isn’t the biggest issue on the table. Biden’s liberal Catholicism may be a symptom of larger issues — and since it’s political, it’s easier to cover — but it isn’t the issue that’s going to lock the doors of many parishes from coast to coast, but especially in blue culture zones.

The big issue? Actually, it’s several connected issues — and the elephant in the living room (or sanctuary) is that links them. Hold that thought.

The obvious issues? The priest shortage. Declining enrollment rates in Catholic schools. Closed parishes. You can also add declining Mass attendance numbers in many, but clearly not all, parishes. I would add the collapse in the number of Catholics going to Confession.

This brings us to a very important Cincinnati Enquirer story with this headline: “'Change is difficult': Cincinnati Archdiocese launches shakeup that reaches almost every parish.” Here’s the overture:

The Archdiocese of Cincinnati … launched one of the most ambitious reorganizations in its 200-year history, potentially changing when and where almost a half-million Catholics attend Mass, school and other activities connected to their faith.

Known as Beacons of Light, the restructuring process will combine the archdiocese’s 208 parishes into 60 “families of parishes,” which will begin sharing priests and resources as early as next year.

Unlike past attempts to remake the archdiocese, which rarely got out of the planning stages, Beacons of Light is backed by Archbishop Dennis Schnurr and will in some way touch almost every Catholic and priest in the archdiocese’s 19 counties.

The goal, church officials say, is to eventually unite the 60 new parish families into single parishes.

So, the goal is 60 parishes instead of 208? Do the math on that. That was followed by this nice background summary:

Parishes are not only the center of spiritual life for Catholics but also often the heart of social and cultural life. From schools and sports teams to festivals and fish fries, parishes have bound generations of Catholics together. …

Further complicating matters are the legal and financial logistics of bringing together parishes with different populations, facilities, traditions, leadership and bank accounts. Some are growing and in good financial shape, while others are losing people and money.

Clearly, editors at the Gannett-USA Today universe think the key story here is the priest shortage. But what is causing the priest shortage? What is causing the falling numbers in pews and schools? Hint: Subtract the rising numbers of Catholic immigrants, mostly from Latino cultures.

Clearly, the larger issue is the declining number of active Catholics. While there have been many converts to Catholicism in recent years, there have been more people leaving. See lots of Pew Research Center numbers here and then here. Here at GetReligion, I have been stressing the impact of declining birth rates among American Catholics, as well.

Fewer active Catholics who are practicing the faith equals fewer children, fewer converts, fewer students, fewer priests, etc.

Over at The Pillar, there was this interesting take on why this Cincy story is more than a local headline:

Well beyond Cincinnati, the initiative is worth watching, as its approach may well become a model for institutional downsizing in dioceses across the country, especially in the Northeast and the Rust Belt. 

The archdiocese calls its project, euphemistically, “Beacons of Light.” The idea is that clusters of parishes will be identified in November, which will engage next year in planning processes that aim to discern, among other things, which church buildings they can realistically maintain over the long-term. Eventually parishes will be canonically merged. 

It’s also crucial that Schnurr is known as an effective administrator who doesn’t run from uncomfortable realities. Thus, read between the lines on this Pillar observation:

It is interesting that Schnurr began his consolidation project while ordinations in his diocese are on the rise, and while he expects to eventually see vocations reach above replacement level, in which the archdiocese sees more annual priestly ordinations than retirements. 

Schnurr’s decision seems motivated by two realities. The first is an increased awareness that the multi-parish, circuit-riding, on-the-road lifestyle of many young priests leads eventually to burnout, which is sometimes accompanied by “liability events,” as any number of unhealthy or unholy lifestyle choices might be termed.

There all kinds of details in the Enquirer report that Catholics, and journalists, will want to note — while looking ahead to how this story will unfold in other zip codes.

Active church folks will flinch when they read this:

The first step will be the creation of new parish councils to represent all the parishes, instead of the individual parishes. The next is the appointment of pastors in the spring to lead each parish family.

The most visible change, at least early in the process, will likely be to Mass schedules. Pastors and parish councils will have to decide which churches get which Masses to accommodate everyone in the new, bigger parish families.

The tougher decisions on whether to close or consolidate schools and churches will likely come later.

If you are looking for the larger issues — the demographics shape destiny stuff — read this carefully and look for the holes. This is a bite or two from a new 177-page report about the old and new realities:

According to the report, Mass attendance in the archdiocese declined 22.5% between 2010 and 2019, Catholic school enrollment fell 14% over the same period, and the number of priests, which has been declining for decades, was projected to drop another 18% by 2031.

The report also found the archdiocese’s demographics continued to shift unfavorably. The Catholic population here is getting older — baptisms declined 19% in the past decade — and the Catholic share of the population fell from 14.2% to 11.9%.

Schnurr said he’s optimistic the archdiocese is turning things around. He said the seminary’s enrollment has doubled from 30 to 60 in the past decade and most parishes are on solid financial footing.

Catholic believers will, of course, note that there are spiritual issues involved in all of this. But a declining number of active, faith-practicing Catholics is what it is.

But let’s flash back to these haunting 1969 words from a German priest and professor who would later become a cardinal.

From the crisis of today the Church of tomorrow will emerge — a Church that has lost much. She will become small and will have to start afresh more or less from the beginning. She will no longer be able to inhabit many of the edifices she built in prosperity. As the number of her adherents diminishes, so it will lose many of her social privileges. In contrast to an earlier age, it will be seen much more as a voluntary society, entered only by free decision. As a small society, it will make much bigger demands on the initiative of her individual members. …

The Church will be a more spiritual Church, not presuming upon a political mandate, flirting as little with the Left as with the Right. It will be hard going for the Church, for the process of crystallization and clarification will cost her much valuable energy. It will make her poor and cause her to become the Church of the meek. … And so it seems certain to me that the Church is facing very hard times. The real crisis has scarcely begun. We will have to count on terrific upheavals. But I am equally certain about what will remain at the end: not the Church of the political cult, which is dead already, but the Church of faith. It may well no longer be the dominant social power to the extent that she was until recently; but it will enjoy a fresh blossoming and be seen as man’s home, where he will find life and hope beyond death.

Of course, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger later became Pope Benedict XVI, who is now retired.

Stay tuned, to say the least. These changes in Cincinnati are more than local news.

FIRST IMAGE: Illustration posted with feature entitled “The elephant in the room,” at Wonu-ideas.com