We are in the middle of another election season and in full mud-slinging mode.

Elections are an annual occurrence, to one degree or another, but the vote that will dominate this Nov. 8 are known as the midterms. It’s when a majority of seats in both the House and Senate are up for grabs, allowing for the party in the minority (in this case the Republicans in both chambers) to potentially becoming the majority. Midterm elections are also traditionally viewed as referendums on presidents.

This takes us to the Catholic vote and its impact on the outcome. This is a topic that is receiving little or no mainstream press coverage. As we say here at GetReligion: “Hold that thought.”

While inflation and crime will certainly be on the minds of most as they cast ballots, “culture war” issues are very much alive and well. Abortion, especially after this June’s Supreme Court decision that once again made it a state issue after Roe v. Wade was rolled back, will certainly be an issue.  

There have been many, many news stories about how the abortion issue will motivate those on the political left to come out and vote following the Dobbs decision. The Washington Post, on Oct. 8, reported on the issue in a news feature that appeared under the headline, “Women powered Democrats in the 2018 midterms. Will they again in 2022?”

After opening with two Colorado women, Robin Kupernik and Elizabeta Stacishin, who had joined forces in 2016 to combat Donald Trump, who was elected to the presidency that year. This is the feature’s thesis: 

In the 2018 midterm elections, women like Kupernik and Stacishin were part of a women-led army that changed politics. Women who had never been particularly active politically worked phone banks, wrote postcards and sent text messages to voters. They were repulsed by Trump and determined to do something about it.

They met in small groups, marched in the streets and went door-to-door to encourage people to vote for Democrats. Their passions were palpable. Many of the congressional candidates they were supporting flipped Republican-held seats, all part of a political tide strong enough to flush the GOP from control of the House, dealing Trump a major defeat. The Pew Research Center has estimated that 62 percent of White women with college degrees backed Democrats for the House four years ago.

That has become the major press-coverage storyline of the midterms. Conservatives, after claiming a major victory in the Dobbs decision, aren’t energized any longer by the issue. Those on the left, however, are and are poised to stem the bleeding that usually occurs when the president’s party is in the White House.

But the story continues with this:

For much of this year, the political dynamics appeared to be the reverse of 2018 — a rebellion against Biden poised to eliminate Democrats’ slim majorities in the Senate and House. History alone suggested that. But the crosscurrents are more varied than they were four years ago. Earlier predictions of sweeping Republican gains have been tempered by the changing political climate, thanks in large part to the Dobbs decision, though the GOP remains favored to take control of the House. In the final weeks, with concerns about the economy still dominant, elections could turn on how much sustaining energy the Dobbs decision provides for Democrats or whether it fades in the face of bread-and-butter concerns.

Biden’s approval ratings remain well below 50 percent, though his average rating is not as low as it was a few months ago. Inflation continues at decades-high levels. Crime in major cities and some suburban areas is up. The influx of undocumented immigrants gnaws at many voters. All that continues to push toward Republican victories.

It then goes on to make an issue of Trump and the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.

But what about faith voters and Catholics in particular?

For example, note that the Washington Post feature, over 6,000 words in length, goes on to identify four voter blocs that are crucial — Blacks, Latinos, working-class white voters and women with college degrees.

This story, like many in the mainstream press this season, have touched upon social issues that will drive voters to the polls — on both sides of the political spectrum — but religion has once again been largely ignored.

The bottom line: Whether it’s on issues like abortion or same-sex marriage, transgenderism and school curriculums, faith voters will play their part. If the recent past is any guide, Catholics will play an outsized role in the outcomes depending on the state, especially in the so-called “swing” states.

We have a lot of reporting that surrounds speculation and talking points as seen through the eyes of candidates, pollsters and political experts. The lack of on-the-ground reporting and the ignoring, as is typical, of Catholics and other faith voters has gotten us here. 

As a result, it’s the Catholic press, across the doctrinal spectrum, that has done a very good job reporting it.

At the progressive America magazine asked the question recently as to whether Catholics would join evangelicals in the “culture war.” Here is a key takeaway from the piece:

As a large voting bloc that is “split down the middle politically” (according to the Pew Research Center), Catholics have an outsized role in determining this year’s results. They are unlikely to break heavily toward one party or the other, but in our current polarized environment, even a small shift could determine whether the Democrats or Republicans can claim victory (and momentum toward the 2024 presidential election). The following are seven questions about Catholic voters, and U.S. voters in general, that may be answered on Nov. 8.

It then went into detail on several issues, but also addressed the practice of “ticket-splitting” in states such as Ohio, where J.D. Vance, the author and lawyer who is also a convert to Catholicism, is running for the U.S. Senate. Here is the section on this that could use more mainstream news coverage:  

Ticket-splitting, or voting for candidates from different parties for different offices, has become much less common over the past couple of decades—in contrast to the late 20th century, when voters frequently chose, say, a Republican president and a Democratic senator at the same time. Since Catholic social teaching does not align exactly with either party, both Democratic and Republican candidates frequently hope that Catholic voters will cross party lines to support them. Will that happen in large numbers this year?

Two states with large Catholic populations to watch are New Hampshire and Ohio; in both, popular mainstream Republican governors are running on the same ballot as Republican candidates for senator who are allied with Mr. Trump (Mr. Vance in Ohio and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire). One issue that may factor into ticket-splitting is immigration: In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine has been welcoming toward refugees, while Mr. Vance, his fellow Republican, has taken a more hardline stance, saying in an interview last year, “I think we sometimes let in people into the country that don’t make great Americans.”

The National Catholic Reporter, another progressive publication that’s a must-read, probed the Catholic vote during the primaries that took place earlier this year. It focused on two other states with large Catholic consistencies, which includes Pennsylvania. This is long, but essential, but here is the key takeaway:

In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, Joe Biden clawed the state back into the Democratic column after Hillary Clinton lost it in 2016. He did so in part by outperforming Clinton in those ethnic, Catholic enclaves like Luzerne County and his native Lackawanna County where white working-class voters predominate.

According to John White, politics professor at the Catholic University of America, one of the ways Biden won was "by personalizing the election and tying it to his own cultural values, values he shared with the electorate. And, for Biden, his Catholicism is such an integral part of that. It works because it is real."

White added that while Democrats will not win in rural areas with more conservative cultural norms, "you still need to show up and make your case."

This year, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan is running for the Senate in Ohio as a kind of young Joe Biden. He, too, is campaigning in areas where Democrats have struggled to attract working-class voters and in rural precincts of the state. Being a Catholic is a big part of Ryan's identity as well.

"Being Catholic, that Catholic identity, Ryan shares that with Biden," said White. "But it's complicated. It is not clear how many Catholic voters bring their Catholic identity into the voting booth. That sense of identity can be accentuated if the bishops enter the fray, but I suspect they won't be getting too involved."

The lesson of last year for the Catholic hierarchy was that any effort to go after politicians will divide the conference and worry officials in Rome.

For Republicans, fealty to Trump has become the defining characteristic of the primary contests, and candidates have been obsequious in courting the former president's endorsement. Over the weekend, it became clear that Trump has shaped the race but he might not be able to determine the outcome. He endorsed Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance and went to the Buckeye state for a rally with the author-turned-politician, but Vance received a decidedly mixed reception from the crowd.

Polling in recent years has shown that Catholics are split on “culture war” issues, like abortion, depending on where they live and whether they attend Mass on a regular basis or not. However, ticket-splitting could be common for many Catholics in the midterms, especially when it comes to balancing pocketbook issues with social ones.

EWTN News has, on the doctrinal right, been very good about reporting on what Catholics think going into the midterms. They have also commissioned several polls that have helped create some context and identify trends that could manifest themselves at the polls next month.

Their second of three this election season confirmed that President Joe Biden’s popularity is waning among Catholics, a key finding given that he’s only the second Catholic ever elected president in U.S. history.

EWTN also looked at the Hispanic vote and the shift among many in that demographic group away from voting Democrat to Republican this season. That could very well be the biggest talking point after the races are called. The Catholic vote in a number of states will determine the outcome. It’s this voter bloc that could very well determine a massive GOP victory come next month. 

FIRST IMAGE: Illustration drawn from the cover of the book “Catholic Voting and Mortal Sin: How You Vote Can Endanger Your Salvation” by John Gerard Lewis (from WalMart sales page).