I don’t know if you knew this or not, but there was a bit of a dustup in Iowa’s Capitol building a few weeks ago. Here’s a quick summary.

The statehouse has a policy that allows different groups to put up a display for a period of time. The Satanic Temple made a written request to use this opportunity to display a Baphomet statue. After some back and forth on details, it was approved.

The display went up and folks got angry. The governor urged folks to pray over the building.

A Mississippi man, Michael Cassidy, drove across the country, entered the State Capital and destroyed the display with a hammer.

Cassidy was charged with a crime for his actions. However, there is a small (but very vocal) contingent of true believers on X (formerly Twitter) that believes Cassidy to be a hero and that all charges should be dropped.

The following tweet is illustrative of that (and click here for tmatt’s GetReligion post on the media coverage). But, I would argue that Ben Zeisloft has a fundamentally incorrect understanding of the religious composition of Iowa. In fact, Iowa is not some throwback to when America was very religious. Just the opposite - it reflects the overall movement away from religion in places where it used to dominate.

So, with the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucuses in the rear-view mirror, I want to make this point clear for reporters analyzing the results and thinking about the future — Iowa is not some bastion of Christian conservatism.

Let’s get to the maps!

First, let’s take on the claim that Iowa is “largely evangelical.” This data comes from Nationscape, which has a total sample size of 477,000 respondents. Which means that each state has at least several hundred in the sample.

The question is simple: do you consider yourself a born-again/evangelical Christian or not? This is the share of each state that responded affirmatively.

Well, let’s first note the fact that this is basically a great way to visualize the question: where is the Bible belt?

It’s in the Deep South of course. The epicenter is Mississippi, where nearly 54% say that they are evangelical. But it radiates out from there. It’s north of 40% in a bunch of states including Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma.

But look at the Midwest — specifically the state of Iowa. Just a quarter of all Iowans self-identify as evangelical. That’s essentially the same share as states like Illinois, Michigan, California and New York State. In fact, Iowa is less religious than many of its neighbors like Nebraska (29%), Missouri (33%), and South Dakota (28%).

But let’s get even more granular now by using the U.S. Religion Census. It has county-level data regarding the share of the population that is attached to a religious tradition. I just did a quick calculation — the percentage who were religious adherents in 2020 compared to the same figure in 2010. Negative numbers means a decline. Positive numbers means growth.

Yeah, that’s a lot of decline. And it’s not a small percentage, either.

Look across the top portion of the state — there are many counties where the drop in religious adherents rate is at least 10 percentage points (if not more) in just a ten year period of time. That’s really the norm in rural Iowa. That’s an important part of this story, by the way. These aren’t highly populous counties. It’s the rural part of the state that is leaving religion the fastest.

There are 99 counties in Iowa, I can find an increase in religion in just four of them. They are Adams, Lucas, Keokuk and Louisa. None of those have a population of more than 11,000. Polk County is the largest county, it’s seen a 6% decline in religious adherents. Linn county is second — it’s seen an eight-point decline. It’s readily apparent from this data that religion is receding rapidly across almost the entire state.

But what religious traditions are the largest in Iowa? That’s what the map below shows us — I found the most popular religious tradition (in terms of number of total adherents) in all 99 counties. It’s a fascinating look at a state that is fairly religiously diverse.

The clear winner is the Catholic Church — it’s the largest tradition in 47 counties (more on that in a second). The second largest religious group is the United Methodist Church — the most popular in 23 counties. The only other group that gets to double digits is the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, which is a progressive mainline tradition. Note how that they are concentrated in the northeastern part of the state. That’s because the ELCA has a lot of strength in Minnesota and that has leaked into this part of Iowa.

It’s interesting to note that there aren’t a lot of evangelical flocks that dominate in Iowa. Nondenominationals are the largest in just one county. Otherwise it’s a Missouri Synod Lutherans, the Reformed Church of America and even the Amish have a strong presence in two counties across the Southern part of the state. The Christian Reformed Church is also influential.

But, back to those Catholics. Recall that they were the largest group in almost half the counties in the state. But, here’s what is noteworthy about that — they don’t really dominate in any specific county. Look at the map below.

There are a total of six counties in the state where Catholics make up at least 30% of the population. There is no county where a majority of folks are Roman Catholic. In fact, across huge swaths of Iowa, the Catholic church is an incredibly small part of the population. Even in the biggest counties, Catholics make up just 10-15% of Iowans. 

I think the impression that I get is that Iowa is a state with a ton of religious heterogeneity. There’s not a single religious tradition that dominates in any specific region of the state.

But let’s take one more look at this issue — religious attendance. I grabbed the last three years of the Cooperative Election Study and analyzed the distribution of religious attendance among a bunch of states that surround Iowa.

Fifty-eight percent of Iowans attend religious services less than once a year. That’s basically the highest share of any state in the region (Wisconsin is very close at 57% in the never/seldom buckets.) Just 23% of Iowans are going to a house of worship on a weekly basis. That’s pretty comparable to other states in the region like Illinois and Minnesota. 

But there’s just no way to look at this and argue that Iowa is a bastion of Christian values. It’s just not.

CONTINUE READING: “Iowa is Not a Particularly Religious State” by Ryan Burge at his Substack newsletter, Graphs about Religion.

FIRST IMAGE: Uncredited photo posted on Pinterest by the Brownfield Ag News of a church near Perry, Iowa.