America’s pastors are continually fretting about the threats of death, disease and destroyed careers that face their parishioners. Also, alongside analysts of religious trends, they have good reason to worry that in the long term shrinking coronavirus-era donations may hinder or doom their ministries and charities.

Reporters also need to ponder the following. Most U.S. congregations are now restricted to providing worship services online. Will meeting God in your pajamas become a convenient habit that permanently undercuts in-person attendance after states soften their stay-at-home and “social distancing” rules? This NPR piece anticipates a permanent slide for in-person worship. (Online classwork could similarly imperil the future prospects of expensive on-campus college and seminary programs.)

The problem is that supportive, face-to-face fellowship is an important reason people are attracted to active participation in religious congregations. Of course, it’s also possible that the new online visibility will pay off by reaching new people. (The Guy’s own Protestant church currently has many more people joining live worship online than appear in person on normal Sundays.). And some brave optimists are talking up a religious revival once this is behind us.

The local and national media have, of course, been asking religious leaders how actual donations and online attendance are running, and what they think the future holds.

Now those who haven’t yet developed such a story, or those who want to take a second look, have a news hook — and a bit of sunlight — in a Roper poll conducted in late April for the Pew Research Center, reported here and then analyzed here by political scientist Ryan Burge (a GetReligion contributor) for Religion News Service.

Reporters will observe that the poll reinforces a scenario that Religion Guy tends to accept. The much-discussed increase in U.S. “nones” who state no religious affiliation seems to forecast a grim future for organized religion. But it is more likely that these Americans were nominal members to begin with and now find such a self-definition more socially acceptable, while the main body of active worshipers generally remains as loyal as ever.

Notably, Roper reported that fully 24% of U.S. adults say their faith has become stronger as a result of the COVID outbreak, compared with a mere 2% who say it has become weaker. Broken down by religious groups, “mainline” Protestants fall a hair below that (stronger for 22%) but the national average is exceeded by Catholics (27%), evangelical Protestants (42%) and black Protestants (a remarkable 56%). By contrast, only 7% of Jews have experienced stronger faith.

Picking up on The Guy’s theory above, we find that among those who normally attend worship monthly or more often, 46% reported stronger faith, compared with 11% for those who seldom or never attend.

As part of this, among those without online worship to watch only 30.9% said their faith has been strengthened. Looking at specific groups, white evangelicals are media go-getters and fully 92% of them said their church posts live-streamed or pre-recorded online worship. That compares with 86% of “mainliners,” 79% of Catholics, and 73% of African-American Protestants.

Burge summarizes, “While a furor builds about reopening churches sooner rather than later, it’s worth bearing in mind that in our current situation many houses of worship are still providing spiritual care for their members, and many have benefited from virtual services, especially for their regulars.”

The Pew Research summary states that “it remains to be seen whether the strengthened faith that some Americans are experiencing will translate into greater service attendance” when things revert to the new normal.

The Guy, a Protestant who considers online worship a necessary but pale substitute for the real thing, offers no hunch on that.

Reporters will also ponder the following. Most U.S. congregations are now restricted to providing worship services online. Will meeting God in your pajamas become a convenient habit that permanently undercuts in-person attendance after states soften their stay-at-home and “social distancing” rules? (Online classwork could similarly imperil the future prospects of expensive on-campus college and seminary programs.)