Demographics

News hooks abound: How will religious faith shape the 'birth dearth,' and vice versa?

News hooks abound: How will religious faith shape the 'birth dearth,' and vice versa?

Two January headlines a week apart signal that the past generation’s “population explosion” worries have reversed.

Observers fretted as China announced its population began to shrink last year as its birth rate reached a record low. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned parliament that a declining birth rate means the rapidly aging nation is “on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society.”

Then last Saturday a New York Times op-ed asserted that unfair burdens on wives and mothers created a “birth strike” and “marriage strike” that are “killing South Korea.” The nation has posted the world’s lowest fertility rate the past three years and deaths now outnumber births.

Such realities provoked the ever-interesting Times columnist Ross Douthat to ask whether “the defining challenge of the 21st Century” will be climate change decried by so many analysts or, instead, the globe’s accumulating “birth dearth” a.k.a. “baby bust” or “population implosion.”

The second trend could well undercut societies’ “dynamism and innovation” and pit “a swollen retired population” against the “overburdened young,” he warned, while listing geopolitical factors in the coming “age of demographic decadence.”

Attention newsroom managers: This is an apt time for media to consider U.S.-focused big-think pieces on how religious communities are shaping population trends and, vice versa, how those trends affect religion.

Pro-procreation government programs appear to have limited impact in boosting birth rates, which instead reflect cultural values regarding marriage and children, and complex individual decision-making. . Articles might examine related abortion policy.

Traditionally, all religions cherish children and favor reproduction, notably in the case of the Catholic Church, as The Guy discussed here a year ago (though today there’s little difference in fertility between U.S. Catholics and Protestants). On the other side of that equation, there’s universal acknowledgment that married couples raising children have been a pivotal constituency drawn to religious involvement.


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Cardinal Pell's death puts spotlight on his words and arguments about Catholicism's future

Cardinal Pell's death puts spotlight on his words and arguments about Catholicism's future

The Catholic church recently lost a giant. The death of Cardinal George Pell on Jan. 10 at the age of 81 was the literal loss of a giant — he stood at a towering 6-foot-6 and was once an Australian Rules Football player in his youth. But he was also a man who attracted both controversy and consternation.

Many remember Pell for what took place in the last chapter of his life — that of being found guilty of child sexual abuse in 2018. The cardinal won on appeal two years later, the convictions quashed by Australia’s High Court.

Pell also had some very real disagreements with Pope Francis regarding theology and the direction of the church in recent years — something that earned him headlines after his death calling him “divisive” and “controversial.”

Nearly two weeks after his death, Pell continues to be written about in both the secular and Catholic press. A lot of this coverage has been thin on reporting and loaded with commentary, conjecture and analysis. In fact, Pell’s death wasn’t only a reflection of the past, but where the church is headed in the future and what Francis’ papacy means.

It’s within this context — and some of the juicier revelations to come out once Pell died — that has kept journalists busy. Once again, the coverage is skewed heavily towards familiar arguments whether the church should stay true to beliefs regarding marriage and sex that go back 2,000 years or look to the future in order to mesh with the mores of the present.

It is through that prism that Pell has received coverage, especially after a secret memo Pell had penned was made public just days after his death.


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Top trends of 2022? There are plenty of political and religion stories in these tweets

Top trends of 2022? There are plenty of political and religion stories in these tweets

It’s certainly been a volatile year on social media (#DUH).

Twitter is my platform of choice. It does exactly what I need it to do because it’s such a visual medium.

Post a graph. Write 50 or 60 words and then wait a few minutes to see what happens.

In many ways, it’s the antithesis of what it means to be an academic. We are taught to qualify every statement, to never engage in hyperbole, to use 1,000 words when 500 would do. Twitter has been teaching me over the last five years about how to visualize data in the simplest manner possible. It’s taught me that if the average reader can’t understand the point I’m trying to make in 280 characters, then it’s probably not worth making.

Then, Elon Musk bought the whole company. I can’t say that I agree with every decision that he is making in steering the Blue Bird Site, but I honestly don’t have a great alternative. So, I will go down with the ship, I suppose.

But, the end of the year always offers a nice opportunity to pause and reflect on what “worked” on Twitter. Out of the nearly 1,400 tweets I sent this year, I wanted to take the opportunity to catalog the five tweets that got the most retweets in 2022. Here they are in reverse order.

5. Education and Religion

I swear I could post a variation of this one once a month and it would get a ton of attention. It’s a really simple bit of analysis, to be honest.

The conclusion is straightforward and widely known among quantitative scholars of American religion. Folks with a higher level of education are more likely to align with a religious tradition and less likely to say that they are a religious “none.”

This reality replicates in every dataset that I’ve ever seen. Yet, it comes as an absolute shock to people on Twitter. Why is that? Any thoughts?


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Five Catholic storylines journalists will need to follow closely as we enter 2023

Five Catholic storylines journalists will need to follow closely as we enter 2023

There are only a few days left to go in 2022. It was a busy news year — loaded with stories with strong religion angles.

Many of those stories had Catholic angles that were important to highlight and report on. A year ago, I took a look at the top Catholic angles journalists needed to focus on heading into 2022. I was prescient in my outlook, highlighting the Supreme Court decision regarding abortion among the top things to focus on.  

This is what I wrote a year ago looking ahead to 2022:

Issues around politics and religion will likely dominate once again in 2022. The abortion issue and a pending Supreme Court decision regarding access to it will be a big story in the coming year. The Catholic church, a major part of the abortion debate in this country for decades, will play a major role in news stories that will be written over the coming months.   

As we prepare to ring in 2023, I want to highlight five big storylines and trends to look for over the next 12 months:

(5) Catholic politicians vs. bishops

The culture war that has embroiled many societies, especially in the United States and now Western Europe, will continue to pit Catholic bishops and politicians. It will be especially pronounced when it involves Catholic lawmakers.

We’ve already seen this with President Joe Biden and outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Both are practicing Catholics who have butted heads with many bishops who keep noting public remarks and actions by these politicians that directly clash with centuries of Catholic doctrines on a great number of moral issues.

The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops recently elected a new president. As conference president, Archbishop Timothy Broglio of the Archdiocese of the Military Services will have to focus on many hot-button issues. Above all, fights over issues surrounding abortion and contraception will continue, including questions about whether politicians who openly clash with church teachings should receive Holy Communion.


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NPR comes to hills of Tennessee and sees exactly the religion trends that you would expect

NPR comes to hills of Tennessee and sees exactly the religion trends that you would expect

What do you know: National Public Radio came to my backyard here in East Tennessee to cover an important religion-beat story. And, well, NPR saw exactly what you would expect NPR to notice, while ignoring all of the details and questions you would expect this deep-blue news organization to ignore.

Once again, we are talking about a story that is totally valid, but its producers avoided the kind of diversity in sourcing that would have made matters more complex. Here’s the headline for the online text version: “As attendance dips, churches change to stay relevant for a new wave of worshippers.”

What’s missing in this story? It’s absolutely true that there are declining churches here in the mountains of East Tennessee, especially during COVID-tide. That’s an important story. The problem is that there are also growing churches in the region (yes, including my own Orthodox parish, which has grown at least 25% in the past three years) and that’s a detail that makes this story more complex. Here is the overture:

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — It's Sunday morning and a small group sits around a fire pit in a community garden under the limbs of an expansive box elder tree. Church is about to start. And it's cold.

"God our Father, we are just so thankful for this time that we have to share this morning," says Pastor Chris Battle, a big man with a pipe clenched in his generous smile. "And we really thank you for fire that keeps us warm even as we sit up under this tree. We just pray that you would bless our time together."

Three years ago, Battle walked away from more than three decades leading Black Baptist churches and turned his attention to Battlefield Farm & Gardens in Knoxville. They grow vegetables and sell them at a farmer's market. They also collect unsold produce from around the city and deliver it to people in public housing once a week.

Battle says he left because traditional church was not connecting with people. He felt they were turned off by the sermons, the pitches for money, the Sunday-morning formality of it all.

This brings us to the first of two thesis statements describing the big picture:

American Christianity is in the midst of an identity crisis. Attendance is in steep decline, especially among millennials and Gen Z who say traditional church doesn't speak to their realities.


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New religion census: That means more numbers, more maps and more hooks for news stories

New religion census: That means more numbers, more maps and more hooks for news stories

It’s always a fun day when one of my trusted sources publishes some new raw data that I can use to better understand the religious and political world of the United States. That’s doubly true when it’s something other than survey data because it allows me to make data visualizations that are a bit different than the run of the mill bar and line graphs.

Earlier this month the Association of Statisticians of American Religion Bodies released the results of their 2020 Religion Census, which is a one of a kind dataset. Every 10 years, this very capable research team tracks religious organizations all the way down to the county level — which is a granularity that is astonishing.

For example, most surveys would be lucky to give you a sample that is large enough to understand religion at the state level. So, to have access to county level data unlocks thousands of possibilities.

This is the kind of detail that helps researchers — and journalists — look for news trends at the local and regional levels. There are news stories hidden in these numbers. The key is spotting them.

So, with that in mind, I took to map-making the last few weeks. I think that there’s a lot of surprising results in this new data.

Where is religion the most concentrated in the United States? Probably not where most people would guess.

According to data from the 2020 Religion Census, there’s obviously a strong pocket of believers in the Bible Belt — that isn’t surprising.


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Good froth and substance in RNS feature about fading church's jump into coffee shop life

Good froth and substance in RNS feature about fading church's jump into coffee shop life

There is a style of news-feature writing that I have heard described, over the years, in words that sound something like this: “Don’t tell me a story about 100,000 people who are wrestling with a big, complex problem. Tell me a story about one person who stands for those 100,000 people.”

For years, this was the style of feature writing that we saw over and over in the “column one” features at the Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times. When used by a skilled reporter, this strategy can help readers understand complex trends and events through the eyes of a well-chosen symbolic person or organization.

One of the biggest religion-news stories out there right now is the slow death of thousands of shrinking churches that face painful questions about what to do with their buildings and the legacies of the believers who once filled the pews. Statistically speaking, most of these churches are old-school mainline Protestant or Catholic congregations in urban or small-town settings. But, truth be told, this is a trend that will torture everybody, sooner or later.

This brings me to a fine Religion News Service story that ran the other day with this double-decker headline:

A once-dying church hopes to reinvent itself with coffee and kindness

Embrace Church had two years left to live. Rather than wait for the end, the church sold its building, reinvented itself and invested in a local coffee house.

Literally, my only question about this story is whether the “summary” paragraph explaining the big picture could have been moved up a bit — somehow. That, gentle readers, is a tiny, tiny nit to pick. Here is the overture:

Community Covenant Church in Kirkwood, Missouri, had a problem common to thousands of churches around the country: an aging congregation, a shrinking budget, a too-big building that spent most of the week empty.

And the clock was ticking.


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